A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps…
predictionmarketspicks-mcp source profile. From the maintainer documentation: “A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.”
The documented npm package is @predictionmarketspicks/mcp. The configuration below comes from the maintainer’s example; adapt its paths and account values to your environment.
Project documentation · Repository · Discovery listing. This profile records the public documentation checked on 2026-10-08.
Check the linked publisher documentation and your connected client's tool list. Names and availability can vary with the server version and account permissions.
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
| calculate_ev | Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. |
| kelly_size | Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating. |
| bayes_update | Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain. |
| convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. |
| base_rate_gap | Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality. |
| combo_edge | Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag. |
| fed_rate_odds | Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate. |
| fifteen_min_board | Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement… |
| perps_board | Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch. |
| perp_liquidation | Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold. |
| weather_board | Every open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price, settlement station, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. |
| senate_map | Every 2026 Senate seat — holder, structure rating, forecaster ratings and the live Kalshi price, closest race first. Unpriced seats return null, never an… |
| race_odds | Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race (by state or district, e.g. "TX-34") — every leg's price, volume and link, plus the… |
| find_arbitrage | Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro. |
| market_pulse | US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free. |
| nfl_power_ratings | PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier. |
| nfl_win_probability | Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread. |
| nfl_ladder | The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. |
| nfl_prop_board | This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price… |
| ladder_arb | Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low… |
| nhl_edge | Goal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board. |
{
"mcpServers": {
"predictionmarketspicks": {
"command": "npx",
"args": [
"-y",
"@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"
]
}
}
}From the project documentation. Replace placeholders and example paths before connecting.
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